China overtakes US in AI race

China has overtaken the US for the first time in terms of the country where leading artificial intelligence researchers work. According to a new Carnegie China study, 40.6% of the specialists included in the 2025 study worked in China, while 34.2% worked in the US. In 2022, the situation was reversed: the US accounted for 46.4%, while China accounted for 27.1%.

The study was based on scientists whose papers were accepted at NeurIPS 2025, one of the world's leading machine learning conferences. The conference featured 5,823 papers by 25,677 unique authors. Carnegie China analyzed 10,280 of them—about 40% of the authors—for whom complete information was available about their undergraduate education, graduate or doctoral studies, and current workplace.

The results show that China has strengthened its position not only as a workplace but also in training leading artificial intelligence specialists. In the 2025 sample, 57% of the researchers received their undergraduate education in China. This figure increased by 11 percentage points compared with 2022.

The share of specialists educated in China who remain in the country has also increased. While 57% of researchers who received their undergraduate education in China worked in the country in 2022, that figure reached 69% in 2025.

Nevertheless, the study shows that the US still has a strong ability to attract international artificial intelligence specialists. In 2025, the US recorded a net gain of 2,145 AI specialists. Moreover, the share of researchers working in the US who received their undergraduate education in China increased by 4 percentage points compared with 2022.

For this reason, the figures of 41% and 34% should not be regarded as a complete breakdown of artificial intelligence researchers worldwide. The study specifically covers 10,280 researchers whose papers were accepted at NeurIPS and whose complete career information could be identified. Carnegie China itself notes that the sample was not random, with academics somewhat overrepresented and industry employees somewhat underrepresented.

Nevertheless, a comparison of 2022 and 2025 shows a major shift in the geographic distribution of leading artificial intelligence researchers. Three years ago, the US had a 19-percentage-point lead over China in terms of where the specialists studied worked, but the 2025 data show China ahead by nearly 7 percentage points.