22:42Machine-translated from Azerbaijani by AIRead in Azerbaijani
Former CIA Director: AI Will Make Battlefield Decisions by 2030
Former CIA Director and retired General David Petraeus has predicted that AI-based military systems could make independent decisions on the battlefield by 2030. In his view, autonomous command-and-control systems requiring minimal or no human intervention in military operations could emerge within the next four years.
Petraeus made these remarks on the “Forecast2050” podcast, hosted by investor Finn Murphy. He said advances in artificial intelligence will significantly change how military decisions are made in the future.
According to the general, AI-based staff officers that collect and analyze battlefield data and prepare operational decisions could emerge in the coming years. Petraeus described these systems as “AI officers that never sleep, eat, or rest.”
The former CIA director placed particular emphasis on the development of interconnected autonomous systems. In the model he described, sensors deployed on the battlefield would collect data and transmit it to an automated headquarters. Artificial intelligence could analyze that data and coordinate the activities of autonomous weapons systems.
Petraeus previously said in an interview with CNBC that such systems could work together at the platoon and even battalion level in the future. In his view, various autonomous devices will be able to exchange information and coordinate their actions without human intervention.
The general emphasized that the speed of decision-making is becoming increasingly important in military operations. He believes that a side that waits for human approval before every operation could lose its advantage to autonomous systems that act more quickly.
Petraeus also discussed the potential for artificial intelligence to improve by using data obtained from its own activities. In his view, such approaches could enable future military systems to develop more rapidly.
Nevertheless, serious debate continues over whether artificial intelligence can fully replace traditional military command systems. According to research published last year by the Alan Turing Institute, artificial intelligence can help commanders analyze data and accelerate the decision-making process. However, it cannot fully replace human judgment and accountability in decisions involving human lives.
One of the main concerns is that autonomous systems could make decisions about the use of lethal force without human oversight. In such cases, who would be held responsible for the consequences of erroneous decisions and how to ensure that the systems operate in compliance with international humanitarian law remain important questions.
Petraeus also said he expects to see drones capable of operating more independently used in the war in Ukraine by the end of 2026.
The former CIA director also discussed the global competition in military technology, saying that he considers China the greatest strategic challenge for the United States. In his view, China is ahead of Russia and Iran in this regard.
Petraeus’s remarks indicate that the military use of artificial intelligence may not be limited to intelligence and data analysis in the future. Nevertheless, it remains unclear to what extent autonomous AI officers will be deployed in actual combat operations by 2030. This is not currently a proven technological capability, but the former general’s forecast for the future.